COVID-19 pandemic and lung cancer rates in Kazakhstan: a comparative study of pre-pandemic and pandemic periods

Aim of the study. To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of lung cancer by component analysis.

Materials and methods. The research material was the data of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan concerning LC (Form 7). To analyze the dynamics of incidence based on the number of cases from 2011 to 2020, a component method was used.

Results and discussion. Analyzing 2011 and 2020, we found a tendency to decrease the incidence of lung cancer (p=0.000). However, comparing 2019 and 2020, we found a sharp decline in the incidence. The overall decrease was −2,22⁰/₀₀₀₀ and depended on changes in the age structure of the population (∑ΔA=+0,34⁰/₀₀₀₀), the risk of getting illness (∑ΔR=−2,52⁰/₀₀₀₀) and the combined effect of the age structure and the risk of getting illness (∑ΔAR=−0,04⁰/₀₀₀₀). The decrease was mainly due to the impact of the risk of getting illness. According to the calculations of the component analysis, 3,856 patients were expected in 2020, but instead the number of patients decreased to 3,375 and this is characterized by a decrease in the number of cases as a result of changes in the risk of getting illness.

Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly reduced the incidence rate of lung cancer in Kazakhstan. Additional analysis and research are needed to understand the full impact and take appropriate measures to combat cancer in a pandemic.

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