medecolМедицина и экологияMedicine and ecology2305-60452305-6053Карагандинский медицинский университетmedecol-343Research ArticleОБЗОРЫ ЛИТЕРАТУРЫLITERATURE REVIEWSСистемная динамика как инструмент анализа эпидемического процесса туберкулезаSystem dynamics as a tool for analyzing tuberculosis transmissionСорокинаМ. А.SorokinaM. A.

Кафедра информатики и биостатистики

Караганда

Department of Informatics and Biostatistics

Karaganda

УкубаевТ. А.UkubayevT. A.

Темирлан Алибиевич Укубаев – преподаватель кафедры информатики и биостатистики, тел. +7 777 969 06 60

Караганда

Department of Informatics and Biostatistics

Karaganda

ukubaevt@qmu.kzНАО «Медицинский университет Караганды»КазахстанKaraganda Medical UniversityKazakhstan20222905202302815Copyright © Сорокина М.А., Укубаев Т.А., 20232023Сорокина М.А., Укубаев Т.А.Sorokina M.A., Ukubayev T.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://medecol.qmu.kz/jour/article/view/343

Актуальность. Туберкулез - одна из лидирующих причин заболеваемости и смерти в мире. Согласно данным Всемирной Организации Здравоохранения, эпидемиологическая ситуация по туберкулезу в мире остаётся напряженной, несмотря на тенденцию улучшения показателей заболеваемости и смертности. В связи со сложившейся ситуацией по ТБ на сегодняшний день, несомненно, актуальным остается непрекращающееся изучение механизмов эпидемического процесса ТБ. Цель. Анализ доступных на сегодняшний день моделей процесса распространения ТБ, основанных на системной динамике, с характеристикой основных предположений, выдвигаемых при моделировании, по данным научной литературы. Стратегия поиска. Проведен поиск научных публикаций в базах данных PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, e-Library. Глубина поиска - 10 лет. Критерии включения: публикации, опубликованные в период с 2010-2020гг., на казахском, русском и английском языках; полнотекстовые публикации, эпидемиологические исследования, основанные на системной динамике. Критерии исключения: повторно встречающиеся публикации, систематические обзоры, публикации с платным доступом. Всего проанализировано 312 публикации, из них 52 включены в данный обзор. Результаты. Анализ литературных данных установил, что на сегодняшний день большинство исследований по разработке системно-динамических моделей нацелены на прогнозирование эпидемиологической ситуации с использованием локальных данных. Кроме того, незначительное количество исследований проведено с включением сопутствующей патологии, такой как ВИЧ-инфекция, сахарный диабет. Результаты также показали, что отсутствуют работы с комбинацией ряда факторов риска в рамках одной модели, что позволило бы создать более реалистичную проекцию течение эпидемического процесса ТБ. Выводы. На основании проведенного анализа научной литературы можно сделать вывод, что метод моделирования - системная динамика - обладает высокой функциональностью, позволяя не только осуществлять прогноз эпидемиологической ситуации по ТБ и оценить эффективность стратегий вмешательства, но и произвести оценку влияния ряда факторов риска на течение эпидемический процесс ТБ.

Introduction. Tuberculosis is one of the leading causes of morbidity and death worldwide. According to World Health Organization, the global epidemiological situation of tuberculosis continues to remain tense, despite a recent downward trend in morbidity and mortality. Considering current situation, the ongoing studies of transmission dynamics of tuberculosis remain relevant. Aim. To identify and analyze all tuberculosis transmission models that utilized System Dynamics, and to understand their modeling assumptions.Search strategy. We searched the following electronic bibliographic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, e-Library for studies published in Kazakh, Russian, English from 1 January 2010 to present days. Search depth - 10 years. Inclusion criteria: the full texts of articles, studies that utilized System Dynamics. Exclusion criteria: duplicates, systematic reviews, paid publications. The full text of 312 records were assessed for eligibility, and 52 studies met the inclusion criteria. Results. The analysis of literature has established that nowadays most studies on the development of system dynamic models are aimed at predicting the epidemiological situation using local data. In addition, a small number of studies have been conducted with the inclusion of comorbidities such as HIV infection, diabetes mellitus. The results also showed that there is no work with a combination of several risk factors within the same model, which would create a more realistic projection of the course of the TB epidemic process. Conclusion. Based on the analysis of literature it can be concluded that System Dynamics has high functionality allowing not only to predict the epidemiological situation of TB and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies, but also to assess the impact of a number of risk factors on the course of epidemic process of TB.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.